Physician workforce shortage
ISSUE SUMMARY
There is a growing consensus that almost certainly the United States will face an increasingly severe shortage of physicians over the next twenty to twenty-five years, without a major re-commitment to expanding the workforce. Some estimates of the projected shortage are as high as 150,000 - 200,000 physicians, or nearly a quarter of today’s physician workforce. Though the supply of physicians is projected to increase steadily, but modestly, between now and 2030, the demand for physicians is projected to increase even more sharply as the population ages, and increases in number. The recent health reform bill passed by Congress is widely believed to further drive demand, as 32 million previously uninsured Americans will be covered by health insurance by 2014.
Some medical specialties may feel the shortage more acutely than others. For example, the supply of primary care physicians is already believed to be insufficient to meet near-term demands, a problem that will only grow worse as demand estimates continue to outpace supply estimates. As the shortage becomes more acute, it will increase pressure on policymakers to expand the use, and scope of practice, of non-physician practitioners.
The physician workforce problem is one of immense complexity, and it doesn’t lend itself to straightforward solutions. The age, gender, lifestyle and productivity of the physician workforce has a direct bearing on the ability of the system to meet the demands placed upon it. The financial and training capacity at all stages of the educational continuum, including graduate medical education, are critical elements to sustaining long term growth in supply. In addition, structural changes in the delivery system may be necessary to increase productivity, as well as changes in payment methodologies, and access to emerging medical technologies.
It is estimated that the number of U.S. medical school applicants having qualifying academic and MCAT scores is more than two times the number of available medical school positions, and U.S. medical schools currently graduate only enough physicians to fill about 50% of the available residency positions. Increasing medical school class size with academically-qualified students would seem to be a sensible way to help address this problem. However, even significant increases in medical school enrollments and GME positions won’t eliminate the physician shortage; it will just make it less severe.
ADOPTED ACTION OR POLICY
KMS supports a significant increase in class size at the KU School of Medicine, as well as continued expansion of opportunities for post-graduate medical education. KMS will continue to work closely with KU, the Legislature and other interested groups to study this issue and identify strategies to address the complex challenge of increasing the physician supply in our State.
Adopted by KMS House of Delegates on May 1, 2010.
